Fantasy Football GM's

There seems to be a trend of firing offensive coordinator’s and a couple teams that still haven’t named their starting quarterbacks yet. Wouldn’t be shocked if none of the teams in these situations (Buffalo, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Detroit) end up being a “surprise team” this year.

Buffalo- fire their offensive coordinator.

Cincinnati- The big OT Andre Smith finally signs and then…two days later fractures a bone in his foot in a non-contact drill. He will miss the first week of the season and after that is not sure yet. With a big guy like him this could be a lingering injury, something to keep an eye on.

Chicago- Kevin Jones is out for the year after injuring his ankle in the final pre-season game. Forte’s fantasy value goes up even more now. Bears expect CB Charles Tillman to be ready for season opener.

Cleveland- Still haven’t named a starting quarterback.

Dallas- Felix Jones may get some more touches around the goal line per The Dallas Morning News.

Denver- Kyle Orton is questionable for the start of the season. Knowshon Moreno is practicing and probable for season opener.

Detroit- Still haven’t named a starting quarterback. Doesn’t look like Stafford has played well enough to earn the starting spot yet. Kicker Jason Hanson is “progressing well” and hopeful for season opener.

Houston- Steve Slaton to lose short-yardage and goal line carries to Chris Brown http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/nfl_news.cfm?news_id=609. Rex Grossman throws for 197 yards and two touchdowns in their final pre-season game.

Jacksonville-Maurice Jones-Drew suffers a shin contusion in final pre-season game. He is listed as questionable to week 1 but will not miss any significant time due to the injury.

Kansas City- fire their offensive coordinator.

Philadelphia- Vick plays extensively is final pre-season game. Doesn’t put up great numbers but shows flashes of explosiveness. He will be eligible to play in week 3.

Minnesota- Favre gets a $10,000 fine for his illegal block against Eugene Wilson in the Houston game.

New England- continue to take advantage of the lowly Oakland Raiders. First they get Randy Moss for next to nothing and now they trade their aging defensive lineman Richard Seymour for a 2011 first round draft choice which will most likely be very valuable lottery pick.

New Orleans- Pierre Thomas says he questionable for season opener vs. the Lions with a sprained MCL.

N.Y. Jets- Sanchez looks great going 5-5 with a touchdown on his only drive of the game.

San Diego- LT gets motivated by comments from Jim Brown http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/nfl_news.cfm?news_id=605.

Tampa Bay- fire their offensive coordinator.

With fantasy drafts around the corner, sleepers are always a hot topic because if you can get some of your late round draft picks to pan out or get a great value for an underrated player it can make the difference between a championship and watching the playoffs from the sideline again.

Here are some tips on how to identify sleepers:

1) Contract year players- sometimes we feel that players should just play at their best all the time, but reality is when they are playing for a contract they almost always play better. There is a great list of contract year players from fftoolbox, some of my personal favorites this year are Ronnie Brown, Phillip Rivers, LenDale White, Vincent Jackson and DeMeco Ryans if you're an IDPer.

2) Addition/Loss of key players- When a key player from the previous year leaves or retires somebody has to fill those shoes. If it is a player that few know about, has not played much or is a rookie then that player will drop due to risk factors. However, if you pay attention to pre-season football, know the systems and do your homework, you may be able to pick up on some good finds. For example, I was just watching some of the Panthers vs. Giants pre-season game and noticed that Eli Manning was targeting Mario Manningham quite often. Obviously the Giants are trying to find somebody to replace Plax and Eli will have to throw to somebody, looks like Manningham could have some potential along with Steve Smith, so I will definitely monitor this situation. Also keep an eye on players that could benefit from key off-season additions, especially offensive line upgrades which effect the whole offense like Jason Peters in Philadelphia and Orlando Pace in Chicago.

3) Players coming off injury or 2 years removed from major surgery- Tom Brady won’t fly under anybody’s radar this year, but players like Felix Jones, Darren McFadden and Ronnie Brown will all most likely be undervalued by your commerades because of injuries last season. This is where it comes in handy to know your opponents. For example, if you’re picking out of the 10 or 11 spot in a 12-team draft and have your eye on one of those players coming off injury, if you know that your opponent picking after you had one of those guys last year, you can risk laying off on them on your first pick and be pretty confident that they will be there on the come-around because they won’t want to be disappointed two years in a row by the same player.

4) Players who came on at the end of last year i.e. Kevin Smith and Cedric Benson. Teams that are out of the playoffs will test some things out at the end of the year. If you were paying attention or if you go back and look at some of the stats, you may not be able to get a real good read on the player but maybe just enough of a glimpse to take a well-calculated risk that could pay off big time for you.

How much weight you’d like to give each of these factors is up to you but I would rank them in the order that I have listed them. Hope this helps and let me know if you have any other tips as well!

Looking forward to watching the Hall of Fame game today I thought I would compile some news and notes from training camps for your guys collected from fyifootballplay, fftoolbox and CBS Sports.

Atlanta

Roddy White gets 6 year $50 million contract extension.

Carolina

Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams dinged his lower leg toward the end of practice Friday and was looked at by trainers on the table. Williams apparently hurt his toe running through the line, but coach John Fox said Williams is fine per CBS Sports.

Cleveland

QB Brady Quinn outperformed Derek Anderson at the Browns' intrasquad scrimmage Sunday morning.

Chicago

LB Brian Urlacher looks like he is getting his second wind. He has picked off Jay Cutler twice in intrasquad scrimmages.

Jay Cutler has favored Olsen, Bennett and Hester in two-minute drills per the Chicago Redeye.

Devin Hester to focus more on receiving.

Denver

Knowson finally signs and fans do not like Orton already who threw two interceptions in a recent practice. It's visibly obvious that WR Eddie Royal is stronger in his arms and chest this season.

Detroit

Lions insider Tom Kowalski says there is no question the Stafford will win the Lions starting quarterback positions. LB Julian Peterson says the even as a rookie Stafford is way ahead of the curve. Btw, a friendly rivalry has developed between Petersen and Foote who played their college ball at Michigan State and Michigan respectively per Kowalski as well.

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard hasn't looked especially sharp in drills.

Kansas City

According to writer Kent Babb, RB Jamaal Charles "really has been one of the Chiefs' more impressive players so far."

New York Giants

WR Hakeem Nicks revealed he is at 202 pounds, down significantly from the 212 to 215 pounds he played at in college.

New York Jets

Sanchez taking snaps with the first team.

New Orleans

RB Pierre Thomas lined up at QB during some wildcat formations in practice recently with Drew Brees at receiver…they are apparently just trying it out.

Philiadelphia

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson has hyperextended his right knee in practice. Jackson fell awkwardly Saturday after getting tangled up with cornerback Asante Samuel during a full-squad drill. The second-year pro walked the length of the field with head trainer Rick Burkholder before being carted to the locker room. Jackson was able to put weight on his leg after practice, but the knee was heavily wrapped per CBS Sports.

Rookie WR Jeremy Maclin will get the bulk of the punt and kick return chances in the Eagles preseason opener.

Pittsburgh

Veteran WR Shaun McDonald is also getting a look from the Steelers as a punt returner.

OLB and reigning defensive player of the year LB James Harrison says his body fat is down two percent from last season.

St. Louis

WR Donnie Avery has X-rays for a sore foot that sidelined him on Saturday's intrasquad scrimmage.

San Diego

Tomlinson is campaigning for Chargers to use him and Sproles on the field together more often.

San Franscisco

Crabtree still holding out. His financial advisor and cousin David Wells stated to ESPN’s Jeremy Schaap that he his prepared to sit out the whole season and re-enter the 2010 NFL draft. Crabtree’s agent has said that this is not the case and that he prefers to negotiate in private.

As much as I’d like to tell Michael to get his ass to camp and his “advisor” to shut up, they do kinda have a case. Word is that the 49ers are not matching what Heyward-Bey of the Raiders got. Crabtree is obviously the better talent...personally I think the problem is that the NFL needs to do something about these outrageous rookie contracts.

Seattle

Seahawks agree to deal with No. 4 overall pick Aaron Curry.

Believe it or not the hall of fame game is only a couple weeks away on Sunday August 9th, which kicks off the NFL pre-season and season for that matter. The Class of 2009 includes Bob Hayes, Randall McDaniel, Bruce Smith, Derrick Thomas, Ralph Wilson, Jr., and Rod Woodson.

I know everybody is stoked so here’s a look at some upcoming events leading to the start of the regular season and some news and notes about what will be different this year.

1. Hall of Fame game Sunday Aug. 9th, Bills vs. Titans about 3 weeks.

2. Bears at Broncos Sunday Aug 30th. Bronco fans won’t have to wait long to boo their former quarterback. This is the prime time game during the most important and last tune up for the regular season…should be a good one.

3. Your Fantasy Draft- you may have multiple drafts to look forward to but they should all occur on or after the 3rd preseason game. To have a fair draft the preseason preparations should be completely done so that nobody’s fantasy season will not be ruined by drafting a key player who gets seriously injured in preseason (i.e. Michael Vick 03’, Clinton Portis 06’).

4. Season opener, Tennessee at Pittsburgh Thursday Sept. 10…nuff said.

5. Monday night double-header season opener- Brady’s return Monday Sept. 14th Bills at Pats. Jon Gruden will be joining Tirico and “Jaws” this year, taking over for Tony Kornheiser.

Of course there will be no more John Madden this year either, although his ever-famous Madden 2010 video game will be released August 14th. I’m just hoping that Frank Caliendo keeps doing imitations of him…the first time I heard it I was listening to him on a local sports radio station and had to pull over to the side of the road I was laughing so hard.

Which leads me to my Super Bowl predictions for 2009. I’m gonna go with the Eagles vs. the Patroits, with the Pats coming out on top. Good luck in all your fantasy leagues, don’t forget you can sign up for a free league at http://www.fantasycrowd.com.

In the coming months I’m sure you’ll hear a lot about studs, duds and sleepers. Here is a list of players that really don’t fall into any of those categories. These are solid players currently going in the mid rounds that if you’re aware of can allow you to be much more confident in the early rounds. You can then take advantage of the best players available because you’ll know what to expect in the rounds to come and won’t draft simply based on need. Although these aren’t all big-name players, targeting these guys in the mid-rounds can change your entire draft strategy and the results you see significantly.

Running Backs

1. Cedric Benson- a new tackle and veteran weapons around him. The Bengals have put in new zone and man blocking schemes to accommodate his North-South running style and were pleasantly surprised with his speed on sweeps per John Clayton’s inside the huddle. Seems primed to take advantage of a great opportunity in a resurgent offense and will be the lone featured back. He’s being drafted any where between rounds 4-8, excellent value in the 6th and later.

2. Derrick Ward- although Brandon Jacobs wearing defenses down and the Giants great offensive line had a lot to do with Ward’s success in New York , he did still manage to put up over 1,000 yards as part of a 3-headed monster. The Bucs pretty much cleaned house in the off-season and are looking for a fresh start. I think Ward is clearly the most talented and reliable of the backs in Tampa Bay and I would look for him to outperform his current ADP of 54th overall.

3. LenDale White- is 20 pounds lighter and coming into a contract year. The Titans are probably not going to be as good this year without Albert Haynesworth and Tennessee would like to expand Chris Johnson’s role, but he still scores a lot (22 times in the last two years, 15 times last year). Johnson’s size is an issue and he did get injured in last year’s playoff game. All in all, at 71 overall ADP he is a great value especially in scoring leagues.

4. Rashard Mendenhall- will get a chance on short yardage and goaline opportunities for one of the best franchises around. His shoulder is healed, he has fresh legs and I would expect the Steelers to use him much more especially in the second half of the season when the wheels tend to fall off for fast Willie Parker. Current ADP is 97th overall so keep an eye out for him in rounds 9 and higher.

Quarterbacks

5. Donovan McNabb- the Eagles really took care of their star this off-season with a new contract, drafting multiple assets on offense and trading for a stud left tackle. Plus, I still don’t think Donovan has forgot about when Andy Reid benched him last year. He could really make a savvy owner’s team in the 6th round where is currently being drafted.

6. Matt Schaub- a low-end no. 1 quarterback being picked in the mid rounds 6-8. He filled in nicely for me last year when Houston played Detroit and Cincinnati back-to-back before getting injured. Has potential to break out with a great surrounding cast. He was 5th in points per game at quarterback per Chris Dowling of footballguys.com, and like Chris says his value comes down to if he can stay healthy.

7. Tony Romo- people might sleep on him because he no longer has T.O and Dallas is expected to shift to a more run oriented offense. However, I read an intriguing comment from Carson Palmer in a radio interview recently about how much Jon Kitna really helped him during his best years so far. Don’t forget he still has one of the best tight end’s and offensive lines in the game. I’d expect him to start a little slower but end much stronger due to the lack of drama without T.O. and extra guidance from Kitna this year to provide solid stats for his current ADP of 59th overall.

Wide Receivers

8. OchoCinco- hampered by injury and losing his quarterback last year. Most people just don’t like him or are tired of hearing about his antics but the fact is that he should have a much better year in 09’. If he slips past the fourth round be prepared to pull the trigger.

9. Bernard Berrian- now that Favre is officially with the Vikings, his stock should steadily rise. Although Minnesota won’t live and die by Brett’s gunslinger style likes teams in his past, I will still expect him to air it out enough for Berrian to be a great look in the mid rounds 6-8 as a WR3 with potential for solid WR 2 numbers or a solid flex play. I mentioned him in my article titled “The Favre effect” as the biggest beneficiary of the signing as well.

10. Anthony Gonzalez- probably the most overlooked 3rd year receiver this year. The Colts still have a legit no. 1 even without Harrison, a tier 1 tight end in Dallas Clark, not to mention Peyton Manning. Peyton trusted him in clutch situations last year so he’s not going to shy away from giving Gonzo more targets. Currently going in the late 5th which is little high for me but still definitely somebody to keep an eye on.

Savvy gm’s will have their eyes on these players who have awesome potential and value based on where they are being ranked currently. These are the players that the less informed will be scared to draft because they don’t know enough about them.

For example, last year the owners that took a risk on Michael Turner, rookie running backs Matt Forte and Chris Johnson and using a flier in the late rounds on Kurt Warner ended up very pleased.

Again I’ll be drafting from the middle of the pack for 12 rounds:

1. Deangelo Williams- breakout year in 08, led all rb’s in td’s and didn’t fumble once. The drafting of Jonathon Stewart motivated the third year back last year and he is going into the last year of his contract…nuff said.

2. Steve Slaton- I’ve seen him ranked in the top 5 and outside of the top 20. I would be thrilled to get him in the mid second. He has the potential to carry a team, especially in a PPR league. No committees to deal with here, playing with one of the best receivers in the game to keep defenses honest, speed, pass-catching ability and pure potential.

3. Dwayne Bowe- He should benefit from playing with a better quarterback in Cassell and having more experience himself coming into his third year where receivers notoriously breakout. Bowe has it all with great hands, size and speed. Also new Chiefs head coach Todd Haley was the OC in Arizona last year so you know he’s not afraid to throw the ball, however Bowe has come to camp 20-25 lbs overweight per his coach and rotoworld.com http://tr.im/oJNC so that is something to keep an eye on.

4. Aaron Rodgers- a year removed from the Favre saga, 1 year under his belt, remember he spent 3 years learning and waiting…had great #’s last year but needed to make more good decisions in 4th quarter. Remember he did most of this with a slightly separated shoulder and even rushed for 4 touchdowns too. I’d expect him to come in with a lot of confidence this year and continue his success.

5. Darren McFadden- blazing speed, hampered by injury last year. Cable likes to run and he should have every opportunity to prove himself this year. Probably will be taken by mid-fifth round, but still might be able to get him in the early portion of the fifth.

6. Antonio Bryant- I picked him in the CBS Mock Draft I did with Dave Richard earlier this month in the fifth round. Really liked what he was able to do at the end of last year. I think Leftwich will win the starting qb job in Tampa and provide a much bigger arm than Jeff Garcia did. The addition of Kellen Winslow should draw attention and help open things up for him as well.

7. Eddie Royal- a pretty impressive rookie year but I think most people will sleep on him since he no longer has Cutler as his quarterback. Orton should be able to get him the ball well enough, he is a good route-runner with exceptional speed. With Brandon Marshall requesting a trade now his value is only increasing.

8. Greg Olsen- I’ve mentioned him a couple times and he was also recently featured in an article by ESPN’s John Clayton about 10 young offensive players who could hit it big in 09’ http://tr.im/ouEn. I’d love to get him here.

9. Donnie Avery- inconsistent last year but showed flashes of brilliance. Definitely worth a shot in the later rounds. Will be more valuable playing at home on the turf, but has a great opportunity to put up numbers in the NFC West.

10. Leon Washington- He’s ended his holdout and I’d expect his contract situation to be resolved by time the season starts. Ryan will run much more this year. This is a transition year for the Jets running game with Thomas Jones toward the tail end of his career and rookie Greene not quite there yet. Washington should be involved in many short passes to get Sanchez more confidence, giving him many opportunities for big plays. Especially valuable in PPR league’s.

11. Green Bay Defense- switching to the 3-4. Had a great draft in my opinion getting B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews to go along with an already good group of linebackers of A. J Hawk, Nick Barnett and Aaron Kampman will now be playing on the outside. Older in the secondary but Woodson and Harris showed they can still play last year.

12. Stephen Gostkowski- if Tom Brady can stay healthy and they return to anywhere near their 07’ form, he will be the most coveted kicker.

If this ended up being my team I would be thrilled. Every player would be great value in the round he was chosen in, if not steals. In a PPR league that starts a flex this team would be very strong, with my strengths being pass-catching rb’s. If I had to depend on my receivers I would be a little less confident. What do you think?

Every year I seem to draft with somebody who doesn’t do any homework at all and basically drafts his team based on what he saw in 08’ or years past. You’ll probably see him picking up a fantasy magazine on the way to the draft and asking everybody a million questions during the draft about who is on what team now, who is injured and other things of that nature. On one hand it’s good because you know they will miss opportunities only drafting players they are comfortable with. On the other hand, you know this will be the first guy to start talking trash if somehow his team gets off to a hot start and he really has no idea what he’s doing. I guess that’s one of the reasons this game is so popular.

If you are one of those people, congratulations on making the effort to do some research this year, you might want to check out some player rankings and my other blog entries as well. As a matter of fact, I would prefer that you go there now, this article will only help you slack even more.

Here’s a quick rundown of what the slacker’s team might look like this year for all you real gm's out there based on current player rankings, mock drafts and who I feel should be available. For the sake of time I just choose to pick 6th because it’s in the middle and to only have 12 rounds:

1. LT- although he’s going in the 2nd round of most expert drafts, this guy still thinks he’s a top 3 value.

2. Clinton Portis- may actually provide good value in the second round but he’s just picking him because he knows Clinton plus the only strategy he’s ever heard is RB RB is the first two rounds, so he’s probably missing out here.

3. Steve Smith- again, just picking a player he knows and filling a position of need.

4. Terrell Owens- hears about him every day in the news, always slips down draft boards because of the gamble associated with his personality but doesn’t stop this guy from taking him.

5. Jay Cutler- here is where he really starts getting hurt. Picks Jay Cutler to fill a need and because he’s heard all about him being traded to the Bears. He really loses out with much better value available for quarterbacks in my opinion.

6. Chad Johnson- hasn’t been in camp all year but this guy is shocked he’s still available. Tons of other huge potential like Lee Evans, Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson but he knows Ocho Cinco therefore he plays it safe.

7. Darren Sproles- I may be giving him a little too much credit here backing up his #1 pick with a fairly solid value in the 7th round.

8. Kellen Winslow- knows he needs a TE so picks Winslow despite the risk…might actually be good value here though.

9. Torry Holt – here is where savvy players really take advantage of guys that don’t know what they’re doing. Missing out on more huge potential like Felix Jones, Donnie Avery or Anthony Gonzalez who might be available but they have no clue.

10. Philadelphia Defense- an older defense that lost Brian Dawkins, not the greatest value here.

11. Matt Hasselback- picks a backup qb instead of investing in another rb.

12. David Akers- picks a kicker and defense on the same team. Not a real big deal but I never liked it because if you’re defense is playing well, the team will probably be winning and the offense will have more of a tendency to run the ball and score less. Also too many players on the same team puts you at risk of being inconsistent due to poor matchups, especially in a tough division like the NFC East.

So as you can see the team is pretty old and injury prone. Also, not much potential here, you’re basically hoping that these players can keep putting up the same numbers. They almost always end up picking players based on where they are and not what they could become...that is what fantasy fooball is all about, especially toward the later rounds. Finding those players that have high ceilings and potential, but you'll only know of those players if you do your homework.

Like the old adage goes, "not preparing is preparing to fail". Well, I guess there’s always the waiver wire. Keep an eye out for my all potential team coming out next.